Signal definitions
Every signal a page can show, exactly as the engine evaluates it.
Change signals
Each is evaluated every quarter for every institution it applies to. A signal needs complete data for both quarters it compares and at least 20 peers that report the same measure.
| Measure | Applies to | When it appears |
|---|---|---|
| Cost of all deposits / Cost of all shares and depositsCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 15 basis points. |
| Cost of all deposits / Cost of all shares and depositsChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 10 basis points. |
| Deposits / Shares and depositsGrowth over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 3 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
| Share of deposits that pay no interestChange over 12 months | Banks | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 2 percentage points. |
| Certificates' share of shares / Time deposits' share of depositsChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 3 percentage points. |
| Borrowings as a share of assetsChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 3 percentage points. |
| LoansGrowth over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 4 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
| Commercial and industrial loansGrowth over 12 months | Banks | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 5 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
| Member business loansGrowth over 12 months | Credit unions | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 5 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
| Auto loansGrowth over 12 months | Credit unions | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 5 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
| Net interest margin / Net interest margin on average assetsChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 10 basis points. |
| Annualized return on assetsChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 15 basis points. |
| Efficiency ratioChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 3 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. |
| Noninterest income relative to average assetsCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 10 basis points. |
| Loans 60+ days delinquent as a share of loans / Noncurrent loans (nonaccrual plus 90+ days past due) as a share of loansChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 20 basis points. |
| Annualized net charge-off rateChange over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 95th percentile or at or below the 5th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 20 basis points. |
| Leverage ratioChange over 12 months | Banks | Change over 12 months is at or above the 95th percentile or at or below the 5th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 1 percentage points. |
| Net worth ratioChange over 12 months | Credit unions | Change over 12 months is at or above the 95th percentile or at or below the 5th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 1 percentage points. |
| Unrealized securities gain or loss relative to Tier 1 capitalChange over 12 months | Banks | Change over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 3 percentage points. |
| Total assetsGrowth over 12 months | Banks, Credit unions | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 95th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 5 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
| MembershipGrowth over 12 months | Credit unions | Growth over 12 months is at or above the 93rd percentile or at or below the 7th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 2 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. Held back after a probable merger (assets up 20% or more in one quarter). |
Compound FORFI signals
A compound appears only when all of its conditions hold. When it does, the signals it combines are not shown again beside it.
- Funding pressure building (Banks, Credit unions)
Requires Deposit costs: above peers; and at least one of: Deposits: below peers; Noninterest-bearing deposit share: below peers; Reliance on CDs: above peers; Borrowed funding: above peers.
With internal data, FORFI would look at: Which depositors repriced or moved balances, which relationships are at risk of migrating, and where exception pricing is concentrated. - Deposits migrating from operating accounts to CDs (Banks)
Requires Noninterest-bearing deposit share: below peers; Reliance on CDs: above peers.
With internal data, FORFI would look at: Which operating accounts are draining, and which customers moved balances into CDs. - Commercial lending growing with steady credit (Banks, Credit unions)
Requires Problem loans: not rising faster than peers; Net charge-offs: not rising faster than peers; and at least one of: C&I lending: above peers; Member business lending: above peers.
With internal data, FORFI would look at: Which new commercial borrowers do not yet hold operating deposits or treasury services with the institution. - Lending outpacing deposit growth (Banks, Credit unions)
Requires Loans: above peers; Deposits: below peers.
With internal data, FORFI would look at: Which borrowers keep their deposits elsewhere, and how much funding existing relationships could bring. - Margin squeezed by funding costs (Banks, Credit unions)
Requires Net interest margin: below peers; Deposit costs: above peers.
With internal data, FORFI would look at: Which relationships and products carry the rates behind the gap, and where pricing has drifted. - Balances growing as membership shrinks (Credit unions)
Requires Membership: below peers; and at least one of: Deposits: above peers; Loans: above peers.
With internal data, FORFI would look at: Which member segments are going inactive, and how many products each active member holds.
Context
When fewer than three signals stand out, a page adds context: where the institution sits furthest from its peers, using the 80th and 20th percentiles and half of each signal's minimum difference. Context is labelled as such and never described as a change.
| Measure | Applies to | When it appears |
|---|---|---|
| Net interest margin / Net interest margin on average assetsCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 10 basis points. |
| Annualized return on assetsCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 10 basis points. |
| Efficiency ratioCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 2.5 percentage points. Small balances are excluded, because their growth rates swing widely. |
| Loans as a share of deposits / Loans as a share of shares and depositsCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 4 percentage points. |
| Leverage ratioCurrent level | Banks | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 0.75 percentage points. |
| Net worth ratioCurrent level | Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 0.75 percentage points. |
| Loans 60+ days delinquent as a share of loans / Noncurrent loans as a share of loansCurrent level | Banks, Credit unions | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 15 basis points. |
| Share of deposits that pay no interestCurrent level | Banks | Current level is at or above the 80th percentile or at or below the 20th percentile of similar institutions, and differs from the peer median by at least 2.5 percentage points. |